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Ten years after the UK entered into a rushed public vote that split the country and unleashed chaos, a caution comes from beyond the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.

The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering upheavals for which no one is equipped.

That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from either side of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to form a new state with the Republic of Ireland.

Administrative Establishments Unprepared

The author and columnist and The Northern Ireland editor, have found that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are gravely ill-prepared for a possibly tense and monumental referendum.

"The crucial insight of Brexit has gone unabsorbed, which is that stuff can arise suddenly and can gather momentum swiftly," O’Toole said. "I would suggest that the governmental framework of our islands remains extremely volatile."

Released Volume Aims to Provoke Discussion

The duo have analysed the political, financial and cultural reasons for any constitutional change in a book, Examining Irish Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.

They aim to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of public talks that will take them to Westminster soon.

"What haunts all parties, or should haunt everybody, is the Brexit vote of 2016," commented O’Toole.

"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, vague proposition whose results have remained undefined because then you land with an extremely polarised community where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have achieved."

Legal Framework

Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland secretary of state should call a referendum on Irish unity if it is indicated that a most voters would vote in favour.

Nationalist parties and other nationalists claim that moment is approaching, and a non-profit called pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists minimise the likelihood, leaving it unclear if and when there will be a referendum.

Absence of Serious Debate

Partisan language for and against unity has obscured the absence of substantive discussion, said the journalist.

"People tend to be supportive or opposed the notion but the concrete planning which could extend past that to achieve it has largely not occurred. Much has gone on in universities but very few government figures or activists want to engage even with the basics. For instance, what type of nation would you want? Centralised? Federal?"

Book's Approach

In the publication, none of the commentators supports unity or the status quo. They composes two essays that seek objectivity in laying out the case for a united Ireland and the rationale against, gathering economic and societal data, historical precedents and structural examples.

Discussions range over identity markers, levies, healthcare systems, retirement funds, public liabilities and the threat of loyalist violence. The aim is to educate and stimulate dialogue.

"There is significant curiosity in the topic but there is still lacking a discussion," commented O’Toole. "Dialogue suggests an acceptance of the concept that there may exist good arguments on either side."

Simultaneous Plebiscites

A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where voters say they support unity but reject increased taxation or introducing a different emblem to recognise pro-UK communities' British identity.

"Policymakers in Ireland does need to establish what the plan from nationalist groups is aside from just declaring: 'We want a united Ireland and we welcome you'," stated O’Toole.

Probability of Public Vote

McBride believes a national vote in his generation is possible and that it may take place unexpectedly. "It is possible just a mad or a poor or a negligent official who states: 'Let us proceed and get it out of the way.'"

Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have credible, legitimate perspectives, he said. "Somebody will prevail here and somebody will ultimately not succeed but all factions has got something to learn from the other's viewpoints."

Call for Broader Debate

Westminster should join the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns your state. It's a British question as much as it is an Irish issue."