Morgan Rogers' Scoring Streak Drives Aston Villa's Improbable Title Charge
Just two months prior that the young forward stood on the pitch at Sunderland, appearing bewildered as his coach berated him for failing to anticipate a penetrating pass. Back then, as the club failed to win in six, it wasn't clear whether Rogers' form were an indicator or a cause for the team's wider issues.
“Following Rogers' second strike… Emery discarded his jacket, extended his arms, and let out a triumphant roar.”
This weekend, however, the manager's outburst was much more joyous. When the in-form star drilled in his second to reclaim Villa's lead, the Spanish tactician tore off his winter coat, opened his arms and shouted in triumph. Villa were on their way to a tenth straight victory , despite not winning any of their first six matches, find themselves a mere three points behind table-toppers Arsenal.
Are They Legitimate Title Contenders?
It remains a particularly tough question to answer. The historical record, the perceived status of the club, argues against it. Furthermore, they've rarely been completely commanding this season, even as the victories have stacked up.
According to Opta, on just two occasions has the team had an expected goals figure significantly higher than their opponents. For a club that have strung together 10 in a row, they seem weirdly vulnerable – yet right now the tight outcomes are swinging for them.
The Rogers Recipe
The prevailing tactic looks like to engage in a shootout with the opposition before hoping their star man to save the day with a couple of clinical strikes. This was the case away to Leeds, it happened against West Ham, and it happened against Manchester United.
Rogers' first goal originated from an exquisite effort, arced precisely inside the post from the edge of the area. For his second acted as a slight scruffier version of his first capitalizing on a setup by his strike partner.
“Perhaps Rogers’ right foot is becoming like Arjen Robben’s left: just because you know he’s going to whip the ball into the top corner doesn’t mean you can stop him.”
How Long Can This Continue?
Logic says not. Against United, the opposition registered more shots and more efforts on goal. They have won each of their last eight by just one goal. The defence has been breached in all except one of those games.
Regression to the mean may well be the greatest opponent they must confront over the coming weeks. Rogers, surely, cannot keep on thrashing his shots into the top corner indefinitely.
Reasons for Optimism
Maybe there exists another reality whereby, instead of results trending towards performances, the team's displays improve to justify the wins. Vital cogs could still find their top level.
- Ollie Watkins might resume finding the net regularly.
- The winger might become the performer he showed at Borussia Dortmund.
- The injured centre-backs are set to regain fitness, fortifying a periodically leaky defence.
Perhaps there is in that the possibility for a sustained push, however, it is improbable can persist in leaning entirely on a single individual.
Enjoying the Ride
However, nobody expected this. It seemed improbable Aston Villa would occupy in a Champions League place in December. And most definitely back in October, nobody thought Rogers by the end of the year would be leading a title charge and appearing as a vital player for the national team.
This remarkable period must be cherished precisely because it feels so unlikely. When Rogers stood in front of the North End when the game ended leading the celebrations, it was clear to be loving the experience. Which he fully merits. These runs of form are uncommon in the sport and ought to be celebrated.